Tag Archives: Big Data

How did we get a $10 million verdict for broken heel with $10k in meds?

A week before Thanksgiving, a trial team and I won a $10 million verdict in a case involving a broken talus bone in a conservative county (Indianapolis) with $10,000 in past medical bills (which we fought to keep out but which defense was allowed to bring in). This was a hard fought battle with a tough judge and some really bad rulings, but we prevailed with grit and foresight.

The case involved an admitted liability trial against Frito Lay. Plaintiff, a 47 year old female, shattered her talus bone in the wreck.

Her talus bone healed but post-traumatic arthritis became apparent later and progressed quickly from mild to severe over the course of two years to the point that she can no longer walk more than a block or two, cannot stand for longer periods of time to cook meals, cannot fall asleep until 4am due to the pain, and cannot sit to work longer than an hour or two without tears.

Her physicians all opined she needed a subtalar fusion which she had yet to get due to high blood pressure that predated the wreck but that she could not control post-wreck due to inability to exercise.

Defense tried to use blood pressure as its biggest red herring throughout the trial and said the fusion would fix it all. We argued that there was no magic pill for her and even if she got the fusion, she would forever have pain.

Paid medicals were $10,000, incurred medicals were $45,000. We wanted to waive these but defense was allowed to bring them in.

Defense IME opined that plaintiff had a new injury during the recovery period. Defense pulled the plug on him and didn’t call him to testify which likely backfired as he was their star witness.

One of the big claims for damages was the fact that the plaintiff was unable to complete her doctorate and work. The pain in her foot is so severe that she cannot sit for more than a couple of hours without tears and can’t walk without assistance. She had dreams of starting programs to help aged-out foster children which would help heal some of her wounds from her broken and abusive childhood. Lost earnings were $600k, but the loss was so much more than that. She lost her passion and purpose.

Defense economist refused to acknowledge that chronic pain and loss of sleep could make it more difficult to focus or sustain employment long term and that she could sit to work but she broke down in tears during testimony and needed a break. She was far from a complainer and was a stoic woman with a tough life. Jurors knew this was not theatrics.

The judge was so harsh on my attorney clients that they almost called off trial days before. “We can’t get a fair trial with this judge,” they said. After talking it through with them, I convinced them to push forward. Trials are never clean, judges often make bad rulings, and yet it all comes down to the story, the client and the jury. I knew we had a great client, a compelling story, and we had to get to trial to see the jury (who also turned out to be fantastic).

The judge denied demonstrative animations, including a surgical animation that even defense agreed was admissible. In opening, he cut us off on any part of undermining defense contentions stating that we could not preview the defense case at all. During jury selection, he did not seem to properly account for juror numbers and denied a very clear cause challenge (while granting a lesser one for defense).

He was good at engaging jurors, however, and did calm down when we got moving.

Final offer during trial was $200,000. The jury took 90 minutes to come forward with a $10,000,000 verdict.

I helped with case framing, witness prep of the client and her family members, review of client-conducted focus groups, aide in opening statement and closing argument preparation, and select the jury. Brandon Yosha of Yosha Law and his team took my advice and eagerly applied it. They weren’t afraid to put in the hours or change course and the results speak to that.

I’m very proud of this one: it could have been a case about a broken heel and speculative surgery but jurors knew it was about so much more.

A note about trying a case during holidays: trial timing is rarely convenient. But when your closing argument lands during the holidays, you can either ignore it or use it to anchor the jury in the real-world human consequences of their decision.

In closing, Brandon went through how long the verdict has to last. By showing a timeline of past events, he was able to get jurors to realize how long 40 years is. This gets jurors primed to think of the consequences of their verdict over time.

Since we closed a week before Thanksgiving, I told Brandon to add this:


“Thanksgiving and the holidays are upon us and we will all go back to our families and friends. In twenty years, when Thanksgiving rolls back around, maybe you will think of Karen and your verdict. I hope that you will be proud of the decisions you make here today and look back without any regret. Because somewhere, at that very same moment, at some other Thanksgiving table, Karen will be living out your verdict. What does that look like for her? That’s up to you.”

If you want to hear more about this trial, we will be speaking on Trial Lawyers University on December 18th at 10:30am PST and it will be recorded and available on demand thereafter.

If there is a case I can help you with, please reach out. I’d be honored to help.

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Big Data: What’s All the Fuss?

Big Data is becoming ever more pervasive in trial preparation, and for good reason. To use it effectively, you must understand what it is, what it is not, and how it best fits in your toolbox. Conventionally, trial preparation has included focus groups and mock trials, but now that big data is on the scene, how do these tools play well together? When should you use one over the others? What exactly is Big Data, and why should you adopt it?

What is Big Data, and Why is it Useful?

Big Data is the nomenclature for any large data set study. Several vendors run Big Data jury studies, some of which are more valid and reliable than others, a topic I won’t cover in this article. However, you can contact me privately if you have a vendor and want to know my opinion. 

The benefits of Big Data are its ability to extrapolate and predict. Most often, they are used to predict both liability and damages case outcomes. By running the case by several hundred jurors, we can fairly accurately predict what your best, worst, and average day in court would yield across different variables (such as damages “ask” or liability factors). For example, we can test the same case facts with three different damages asks: $10 million, $40 million, and $75 million. Let’s suppose that the low ask yields an average verdict of $5.5 million with a 75% win rate, the middle ask yields an average verdict of $30 million with a 78% win rate, and the large ask yields an average verdict of $25 million with a 60% win rate. That tells us that you are leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table by asking for $10 million, but $75 million angered jurors and caused them to punish you with a lower case value and win rate. You would then know that your ask at trial should likely be around $30 million and that you have a high probability of winning. 

You will also receive a juror profile. At the outset, jurors fill out answers to several questions, often answering up to 80 intake questions. Their answers are then correlated with their liability and damages verdicts to give you a profile of a good or bad juror. These criteria are often things we can only learn from Big Data. For example, someone who watches the NFL might be 47% less likely to find in your favor while someone who regularly watches Double Jeopardy may be 35% more likely to give large damages. 

How accurate is Big Data? It’s hard to tell as many cases settle and trial often brings surprises, but it is known to be fairly accurate, often within 5% of verdicts. Some of this accuracy, however, stems from properly preparing a Big Data study, which many fail to do. 

Do I Need a Consultant to Run a Big Data Study?

No, you are not required to have a consultant, though I think it’s a mistake to run one without. I regularly review Big Data scripts submitted prior to my retention. I find various errors, including weak defense arguments, missing information, confusion, damages asks that are outside the limits of the venue caps, misinformation regarding expert opinions, and very frequently weak case framing. All of these can render Big Data results misleading and invalid, and all were missed by the Big Data vendors.

Avoiding these pitfalls is hard when you are immersed in the case. Most Big Data vendors will suggest having a consultant assist with the project. Those who run Big Data studies are statisticians and know how to work with data. Some are even attorneys. However, they do not have the skills or the time to read through case documents and converse with you about small but important details of the case. They may review your scripts and make suggested changes, but they are not involved in the depths of the case necessary to catch errors or create proper framing. Therefore, to save the integrity of the study, it is suggested to have a consultant assist on the front and back ends. When I work with Big Data, the costs are only slightly higher to have my involvement as I’m taking work off their plates in preparing the study properly. Thus, you can have a consultant on board to direct the research and dive deep into the case for the same price or a few thousand more.

Having a consultant help with Big Data is also essential for moving forward and implementing findings. When you find out what jurors are good or bad, how do you implement those questions into your voir dire? How much weight do you give them compared to what jurors say during voir dire? How do you implement the Big Data findings into your case framing? These are all issues a consultant can help with.

Big Data vs Focus Groups & Mock Trials

How does Big Data interact with focus groups and mock trials? Do we still need these smaller juror studies? Absolutely. Big Data is excellent at predicting damages and trial outcomes but not very useful for framing or understanding what jurors like or dislike about the case. It does nothing to show deliberations or group dynamics. Conversely, focus groups and mock trials are terrible at predicting damages or case outcomes but are fantastic for case framing, group dynamics, and getting feedback on issues with the case.

When budgets allow, I prefer to run a focus group or mock trial first to adjust case framing and then use that new frame for a more accurate Big Data study. However, suppose you are headed to mediation and need an early read on the case value. In that case, it may be worth running a Big Data study first and then running focus groups and mock trials, potentially running a second Big Data study later. 

Costs

What does this all cost? As with most things in life, it depends. The price varies with the length of the statements and videos, as well as the number of damages anchors or other variables tested. If you would like a quote, don’t hesitate to reach out.

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